Vadim Gumene
The measure, which takes effect today, April 9, was not subject to multilateral consultations and has sent shockwaves through international trade, heightening fears of a full-blown trade war.
Moldova is also subject to these duties. Their amount for our country is 31%. They are applied to all goods exported to the USA. This decision could have a negative impact on Moldovan exports at a time when the national economy is technically in recession.
Vadim Gumene, consultant at the Independent Analytical Center Expert-Grup, answered the main questions that are asked in connection with the actions of the American administration.
– How was this 31% tariff on Moldovan products established ?
– According to the US administration, the methodology of setting new customs tariffs is based on the “principle of trade reciprocity”. It takes into account tariff, non-tariff barriers and currency manipulation. In essence, the U.S. claims to have analyzed the tariff treatment applied to U.S. products by each partner state. And set tariffs accordingly, subsequently applying a 50% reduction in the calculated tariff.
Thus, the reciprocal tariff calculated for Moldova is 61%, and after applying the discount, it is reduced to 31%. However, there are suspicions in the public environment that the basis for setting the duties was actually only the deficit of trade in goods recorded by the USA with other countries.
The aforementioned methodology was criticized for the lack of transparency and arbitrary nature of the “tariff reciprocity” criteria, which ignored the principles of international trade, as well as the size and economic vulnerability of states such as the Republic of Moldova. Moreover, this decision was taken unilaterally, without international consultations and rigorous economic analysis, which is contrary to the rules of the World Trade Organization.
– What are the trade flows betweenMoldova and the United States?
– Since the applied measures are aimed at reducing the US trade deficit with other countries, most of the discussions focused precisely on statistical data characterizing the intensity of trade relations. But it is the statistical data on imports/exports of goods that have given rise to a number of speculations and misinterpretations as to their correctness in the US tariff decisions.
There is a significant discrepancy between the trade data provided by each country. Thus, Moldovan exports to the U.S. market in 2024 amounted to $90 million, while U.S. imports from Moldova were $142 million. Similarly, Moldovan imports from the U.S. are $135 million, while U.S. exports to the Moldovan market are much lower, only $54 million in 2024.
Nevertheless, these statistics are accurate and presented by both countries in strict accordance with the UN methodology. Such asymmetries in international trade in goods are common in the context of economic globalization, but should be treated accordingly. There may be several reasons that influence the emergence of these asymmetries. In the case of Moldova-U.S. relations, the most influential are the peculiarities of statistical data presentation, where imports are reported by “country of origin” and exports by “country of last known destination” (which is not equivalent to final destination). Therefore, from the point of view of assessing the impact of tariff measures on trade, it is advisable to analyze the import data of countries, since trade policy measures are applied to the country of origin of goods, not to the country of shipment.
Based on the peculiarities of trade statistics, we compared imports/exports of both countries. Thus, significant differences are observed in the data on imports to Moldova from the United States, which are not fully reflected in the U.S. statistics. This is due to the optimization of logistics, when imports are made through regional hubs (e.g. EU). And then it is delivered, among others, to Moldova (but the country of origin of the goods remains the USA).
–What should Moldova do in this situation?
– The U.S. decision to impose a 31% duty on imports from Moldova represents a serious challenge for our country’s economy and the stability of bilateral trade relations. If there is no quick reaction, there is a risk that our country will become a collateral victim of a global trade dispute in which we have neither influence nor responsibility. It is imperative that the government treat this issue as a foreign and economic policy priority. All available diplomatic and trade tools should be mobilized, especially given the U.S. openness to having similar discussions with other trading partners.
At the same time, it is crucial for Moldova to mobilize the support of strategic partners (especially the EU) for a coordinated and principled approach to the unilateral US trade policy, including within the WTO framework. In parallel, public communication should emphasize Moldova’s commitment to free and fair trade, avoiding diplomatic and commercial escalation with mirror-image measures (given that most imports are development imports), but protecting the interests of local exporters.
